Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 40.670529 47.987634 55.985833 65.344210 75.958766 87.588780 101.258724
2025-01-05 29.206864 38.782187 50.254590 64.866641 82.823432 104.003978 130.695291
2025-01-12 24.550015 35.599664 49.757530 68.908129 93.777431 124.596739 165.243161
2025-01-19 18.642348 29.426863 44.152687 65.210576 93.953757 131.164042 182.217573
2025-01-26 16.134398 27.318489 43.402100 67.443650 101.561721 147.236080 211.803440
2025-02-02 14.776247 26.586184 44.339545 71.883525 112.250108 167.786941 248.209803
2025-02-09 13.083035 25.016511 43.760016 73.913478 119.490180 183.841399 279.158210
2025-02-16 11.506813 23.355283 42.773342 75.110680 125.428946 198.207963 308.275559
2025-02-23 9.952274 21.460383 41.141559 75.054583 129.339156 209.699396 333.672424
2025-03-02 8.399441 19.295564 38.768608 73.507788 130.716894 217.382109 353.724130
2025-03-09 7.272290 17.736819 37.223328 73.114155 133.764763 227.568526 377.739190
2025-03-16 5.794451 15.196828 33.588369 68.760508 130.006852 227.019338 385.451159
2025-03-23 5.183822 14.478626 33.440715 70.869735 137.690770 245.630425 424.794572
2025-03-30 4.347454 13.097499 31.860864 70.290775 140.897554 257.534479 454.728740
2025-04-06 4.087460 13.016427 32.865975 74.603868 152.854577 284.153512 508.983535
2025-04-13 3.187323 11.108489 29.764410 70.654174 149.768597 285.756468 523.208568
2025-04-20 2.889213 10.712942 29.872291 73.039667 158.306487 307.185938 570.447592
2025-04-27 2.773549 10.805170 31.088022 77.779976 171.495051 337.107496 632.792978
2025-05-04 2.511164 10.399109 31.081611 79.946178 179.917749 359.136271 682.786526
2025-05-11 2.231907 9.864879 30.685838 81.223421 186.676597 378.512572 728.994205
2025-05-18 1.925547 9.150395 29.730581 81.163579 190.775437 393.307845 767.902786
2025-05-25 1.598102 8.251025 28.148857 79.513312 191.545535 402.092255 796.721079
2025-06-01 1.365189 7.613992 27.155218 79.093286 194.742360 415.374627 833.772649